Tuesday, February 18, 2020

The Failure of Trickle Down Economics - Japans example

Japan has an income tax similar to ours.  Japan built up a booming economy after World War II, by the 1980's Japanese high flying business folk were buying skyscrapers in New York and Golf courses at Pebble Beach.  During that period the top marginal tax rate on the highest income of the wealthiest Japanese taxpayers averaged 77% and went as high as 85%.

The fantasy the gripped the United States in the 1980's that dropping the top tax rate on the wealthy would spark massive economic growth also struck Japan.  Like the US Japan cut the number of income tax brackets and in Japan the tax rate applicable to the highest income of wealthy folk dropped to 66% in 1984. then on 35% by 2002.  Currently its top income tax rate is 45% of income over $40,000,000 Yen a year. ( https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2206.html )

Since Japan started cutting the top income tax rate on wealthy folk, although some Japanese companies have thrived as global industries, as a country Japan has stagnated.  Their National Debt is currently up near 250% of annual GDP and rising due to constant borrowing to stimulate the sluggish economy.

Japan has been unable to figure out how to pull their economy out of the doldrums.  History suggests an answer.  Incentivez production by taxing the money that comes out of Corporations, rather than taxing the money in corporations.  

Tax policy in both the US and Japan is formulated by folks near the top of the income scale and most don't seem capable of recognizing the historical correlation between cutting taxes on the wealthy and ensuing economic stagnation, that taxing excessive income at very high rates stimulates economic activity and makes everyone richer.  They also seem unwilling to recognize that taxing corporations just because they have a lot of money is counter-productive.  

When Shinzo Abe became Japanese prime minister in 2012, to address the countries massive government debt he took the politically expedient route, imposing a tax on consumption, rather than force a tax increase on the wealthy.  It was the worst possible choice for developing a diverse economy - consumption is the engine that drives modern economies, every dollar of tax is a dollar less available to the private economy.

The latest Abe increase in the consumption tax took effect last year.  The numbers are now in and Japan's GDP shrunk 6.3% last year. 

Japan seems incapable of figuring out that high marginal tax rates on excessive income encourages economic expansion, while taxing consumption undermines the economy.  

Will we be able to figure it out?



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