Friday, October 2, 2020

Trump's Tax Cuts Add $18,600 in Debt for each Taxpayer per Year

A social media post comparing the Biden plan with the Trump tax cuts notes a lot of middle income families paid somewhat less under the Trump plan compared to the Obama years.  I presume the goal of the comparison is to help in figuring out for whom to vote. The posting computed how much taxes a regular family would pay over a couple years before and after the Trump tax cuts. 

The post neglected to consider the National debt. Considering the National Debt exposes how the Trump tax cuts were crassly aimed at buying votes now with total disregard for future generations.  

The bottom line:  For each year the Trump Tax cuts have been in effect $18,600 in debt has been added per taxpayer.  Here is the data (and a website to help with your own computations - don't take my word for it).

In 2017 (the latest year for which the internet has data) around 144 million people filed Federal Income tax returns.  If you divide the National Debt by the total number of taxpayers here is what you get. 

The current National debt is approaching $27 Trillion.  (https://www.usdebtclock.org/ ).  When the Trump Tax cuts were enacted in 2017 the debt was $20 trillion.  At $20 Trillion the share of the debt for each of the 144 million taxpayers was about $158,000.  With the debt currently at $27 trillion each taxpayers share of the debt has increased to about $215,000.

So in the three years the Trump tax cuts have added $56,000  to each taxpayers share of the debt, about $18,600 per year, vastly more than the short term tax savings realized by any hypothetical middle income taxpaying family.  

This isn't just about Donald Trump, he is just playing out of the Republican party playbook.  Here are some historical facts:  

Between 1933 and 1981 the wealthiest taxpayers paid an average of 70% tax on that portion of their yearly income that was far beyond what the average taxpayer made.  In those years GDP growth averaged nearly 3% per year, and in 1981 the National Debt was the same as it was in 1933 - no net growth, even after funding WW II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War and sending folks to the Moon.  This period also saw middle class incomes peak in the decade before Reagan.  

In 1981 when Ronald Reagan became President the National debt stood at about 30% of GDP.  Keeping taxes low on the wealthy was a top priority for Reagan and every Republican since, as Republican's have dominated Congress and government policy since Reagan.  The National debt has increased every year while GDP growth has been mediocre and middle class buying power has deteriorated. 

The net result is since Reagan the National Debt, as a percentage of GDP, has grown faster than GDP.  As a country we have gone backwards in economic development. 

Republican tax cuts for the wealthy (trickle down economics) are an abject failure.  Globalization hid the extent of the failure, the shrinking wealth of the middle class in the United States was offset by big corporations selling stuff to people all over the world so GDP was at least mediocre.  Wall Street did great, Main Street did badly.  

Forget Donald Trump and all his...quirks.  To get this country back on a sustainable fiscal path voters need to realize the problem has been and is Republican economics.

P.S. - Don't be confused by folks talking about a lower National Debt figures.  About 20 years ago Republicans who wanted to finance more tax cuts borrowed money from the Social Security Trust Fund.  The debt to the Social Security Trust Fund is often excluded (since it is the Fed owing money to the Feds) and only debt owed to the rest of the world is counted as the "National Debt".  Ironic in that the Social Security Trust fund is working folks retirement money - by borrowing from the Social Security Trust Fund Republicans managed to put workers on the hook for paying the interest on their own retirement funds.