Friday, January 28, 2011

Who to believe about the cause of the 2008 crash?

The Government just released the Congressionally authorized report on the causes of the Financial Crisis.  The 6 Democrats on the panel said it was caused by failure of Government Regulation.  The 4 Republicans said there was no way to foresee it so there is no way to regulate it.


Who's right?  Here are some facts I find enlightening.


I found a website that lists the top 10 worst financial crisis in the history of the United States.  The website was aimed at investors so was identifying worst based on the investing performance rather than overall damage to the economy, so wasn't strictly addressing banking related financial crisis, but seems close enough.


The number 1 worst financial crisis was the the great depression that started with the stock market crash in 1929 and the bursting of the housing bubble.  Here is the interesting part.  Republicans controlled both houses of Congress and the Presidency from 1921 to 1933 so had complete control of government policy and regulation leading up to the crash and great depression.


The number 2 worst financial crisis was the current financial crisis that began with the housing bubble that burst in 2006.  Once again, Republicans controlled both houses of Congress and the Presidency from 2001 to 2007, so had complete control of government policy and regulation leading up to the crash.


Thus the start of the two worst financial crashes on the list coincide exactly with the tail end of the only two times in the last 100 years Republicans controlled all the levers of government.


The 1980's Savings and Loan debacle that cost taxpayers some $800 billion dollars was not on the list, probably because it didn't affect stock prices as significantly as the other items on the list.  Republicans took control of the Senate and the Presidency in 1981 and one of their early achievements was to deregulate the Savings and Loan industry - arguing that regulation was a drag on the housing market.  By 1986 hundreds of Savings and Loans were collapsing and taxpayers were picking up a bill that reached somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 billion dollars.  Ironically that bailout played a big part of the late 80's and early 90's federal deficit the Republicans created a big uproar about in 1993 to help them regain control of the House of Representatives in 1994.


I have found no significant financial crises that occurred after a period of Democratic control in the last 100 years (as far back as I am inclined to look given the changes in the world since then)


So I guess in one sense the Republicans on the panel are half - right.  Republicans certainly are incapable of foreseeing or preventing financial crises.