Monday, February 22, 2016

Fact check - Democratic President v. Republican Congress

Republicans on the stump spend a lot of time talking about President Obama's executive orders - that he is exercising power he doesn't have.  On the other hand Democrats have alleged for the last few years that Republicans are more interested in obstructing Obama than in doing the peoples business and Obama says he is using Executive orders because problems need to be solved and the Republican Congress is doing nothing to solve them.  

As a voter the claims that the Executive Orders are unconstitutional is just background static I ignore.  Obama has his lawyers who say they are constitutional, Republican lawyers say they are not constitutional.  I may be many years from law school, but not so far as to have forgotten how fuzzy the Constitution is when applied to the relative powers of the President and Congress.  To me this issue will be determined by the ideological orientation of the Supreme Court that addresses the issue at some point in the future.   

But two of the three Republican front runners dissing Obama's executive orders most vehemently are currently members of the Senate.  How Congress has behaved during Obama's term in office compared to past Congresses seems to have some bearing on whether Republicans have been more interested in obstructing Obama than in doing the peoples business.  Objective measures of congressional activity can provide some evidence of whether Republicans have been willing to engage in good faith efforts to compromise with other viewpoints to move the country forward.  So I looked back at Congressional data back to 1973.

To me the objective facts support the theory the Republicans for the last 7 years have been more interested in undermining Obama than in doing the peoples business, but decide for yourself.  

Summary of the data:

The average number of laws enacted per year

From 1973 through 2008 - the pre-Obama period, regardless of the party of the President and who controlled Congress, Congress enacted an average of 298 laws per year.  The lowest average was 228 during GW Bushes first 6 years, the highest was 385 during the Carter years in the late 70's.

In Obama's first administration, even with a Democratic Congress the number of laws enacted per year dropped to 192.5, well below even the lows of the GW Bush years.  Since the Republicans regained control of Congress in 2011 the total of enacted bills has dropped to 140 per year, less than half what was typical from 1973 to 2010.  

Some might suggest that fewer bills passed by Congress is a good thing.  But no need to change or add laws would suggest that the status quo under Obama is pretty good.  But according to Republican primary candidates the country is in a disasterous decline.  One would therefore think Congress ought to be doing more, not less.  

Vetoes
The drop in enacted laws isn't because Obama is vetoing bills.  During the prior periods when a President of one party dealt with a Congress controlled by the other party the President averaged 8.6 vetoes per year.  In the five years since Republicans took control of Congress in 2011 Obama has vetoed an average of 1.4 bills per year.  This is lower than what Jimmy Carter vetoed per year when he was working with a Congress of his own party (1.7 per year).  I doubt that Republicans are afraid to send legislation to Obama.  It seems more likely to me this is evidence of their focus on marginalizing him by not dealing with him.

Number of Bills Congress actually casts a vote on per year.
Republicans might argue fewer bills have gone to Obama because they can't work with Democrats.  But since the party that controls Congress controls the ability to bring legislation to a vote (through their control of committees) how many bills Congress is allowed to vote on seems to reflect how interested the controlling party is in the negotiation that makes the democratic process work.  

In any given year thousands of bills are introduced in Congress.  A tiny fraction actually get to any kind of floor or committee vote.  Since 2011 fewer bills have been allowed by the Republican leadership to go to any kind of vote than any period in the last in the last 43 years.  From 1973 to 2010 an average of 303 bills per year went to a vote.  Looking specifically at years where Congress dealt with an administration representing the other party 321 bills per year got to a vote.  In the last five years the average number of bills that the Republican leadership allowed to go to a vote was 241.

Side note - Democrats are more democratic
The statistics on how many bills get a vote also reveal that prior to Obama when a Republican Congress is dealing with a Democratic President (Clinton - 1995 to 2000) Republicans allowed an average of 275 bills per year to go to a vote.  When a Democratic Congress has worked with a Republican President, in contrast, an average of 333 bills go to a vote.

Thus statistically Democrats are - well - more democratic.  They are not as inclined to use control of Congress to choke off votes as the Republicans.   

To me this all suggests the problem isn't that Democrats aren't willing to work with Republicans, it is that Republicans have always been inclined to use every lever available to exercise their power to do things their way and have been particularly prone to that approach during the last 5 years.

Source of the Data Summary
This compilation was compiled from data at 
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics
Numbers are average number of bills per year during the specified period. Administrations highlighted in red indicate Congress controlled by opposing party - presumably the most accurate comparable to Obama's last 5 years.

1973-76 - Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford administration
Republican President, Democratic Congress.  
292.75 went to a vote but did not pass
375.25 enacted
15.25 vetoed
1977-80 - Carter Administration 
Democratic President and Democratic Congress.
290 went to a vote but did not pass
385 enacted
7 vetoed
1981-86 - Reagan Administration
Republican President & Senate, Democratic House.
267.33 went to vote but did not pass
307.16 enacted
8.66 vetoed
1987-88 - Reagan Administration 
Republican President, Democratic Congress.
289 went to a vote but did not pass
380.5 enacted
8 vetoed
1989 to 1992 - Bush Administration
Republican President, Democratic Congress.
319.25 went to a vote but did not pass
318.75 enacted
10.75 vetoed
1993-94 - Clinton Administration
Democratic President, Democratic Congress
251 went to a vote but did not pass
236 enacted
0 vetoed
1995-2000 - Clinton Administration
Democratic President, Republican Congress 
275.16 went to a vote but did not pass
224.16 enacted
5.83 vetoed
2001 to 2006 - GW Bush Administration
Republican President, Republican Congress
313.83 went to a vote but did not pass
228.33 enacted
.2 vetoed (1 in 6 years)
2007-08 - GW Bush Administration
Republican President, Democratic Congress
430 went to a vote but did not pass
230 enacted
3.5 vetoed
2009-10 - Obama administration, Democratic President, Democratic Congress
300.5 went to a vote but did not pass
192.5 were enacted
1 vetoed
2011 to 2015 - Obama administration 
Democratic President, Republican Congress
241.8 went to a vote
140.8 enacted
1.4 vetoed








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