Accepting the projected rise in sea levels of 216 feet in the next 100 years as at least a useful working number, here are some elevations for the seat of Government for various political entities.
California: All but two of the major cities in California are at elevations below 216 feet. Sacramento will be 150 feet under water. Move the capitol to San Francisco or Los Angeles? Both will also be largely inundated, as will Oakland, Stockton, Santa Rosa, Eureka, much of San Diego and Santa Barbara. The only major cities that will not be underwater will be Fresno and Bakersfield. California potentially has a big problem with rising sea levels.
The United States. All the major cities on the Eastern Seaboard are barely above the current sea level. A rise far less than the projected 216 feet will swallow up much of Boston, New York, Baltimore, Washington DC and Coastal cities all the way down to Florida, a State almost entirely lower than 216 feet. On the gulf New Orleans is already under threat, most of Louisiana will disappear, Shreveport will need dikes to survive. Houston is at 50 feet above current sea level, On the west coast Portland will be 50 feet under the inland bay that runs down the Willamette Valley, much of the greater Seattle area will be underwater.
Internationally: Of our two greatest rivals in the last half century, Russia and China, Russia's seat of government is in no direct physical danger from rising sea levels. Moscow is at about 550 feet above sea level. Beijing on the other hand is about 150 to 200 feet above sea level, below the maximum projected rise of 216 feet. London is only about 78 feet above the current sea level, Paris about 115 feet. Berlin 112 feet.
Much of Central and South America will be relatively unaffected, the seats of Government for many countries are far up in the mountains. Buenas Aires is only 82 feet however, while Brasilia, on the other hand is nearly 4000 feet.
So What? So what does this suggest about how the world will respond to rising sea levels. It seems to me that a lot of people are going to be desperate and angry as the sea level starts swallowing up their homes and businesses. It is going to create enormous political unrest. It would be a very difficult, potentially explosive time in the best of circumstances, but it will be exacerbated by the disruption of Government institutions being displaced. It could be a time where what many of us hoped would be the rising tide of democracy will become a rising tide of militaristic despotism.
Ironically, Central and South America, whom the rest of the world has often viewed as one of the most politically unstable areas of the world, could become the worlds most politically stable areas, along with Central Asia.
Next: Why we won't muster an effective response to global warming.
Internationally: Of our two greatest rivals in the last half century, Russia and China, Russia's seat of government is in no direct physical danger from rising sea levels. Moscow is at about 550 feet above sea level. Beijing on the other hand is about 150 to 200 feet above sea level, below the maximum projected rise of 216 feet. London is only about 78 feet above the current sea level, Paris about 115 feet. Berlin 112 feet.
Much of Central and South America will be relatively unaffected, the seats of Government for many countries are far up in the mountains. Buenas Aires is only 82 feet however, while Brasilia, on the other hand is nearly 4000 feet.
So What? So what does this suggest about how the world will respond to rising sea levels. It seems to me that a lot of people are going to be desperate and angry as the sea level starts swallowing up their homes and businesses. It is going to create enormous political unrest. It would be a very difficult, potentially explosive time in the best of circumstances, but it will be exacerbated by the disruption of Government institutions being displaced. It could be a time where what many of us hoped would be the rising tide of democracy will become a rising tide of militaristic despotism.
Ironically, Central and South America, whom the rest of the world has often viewed as one of the most politically unstable areas of the world, could become the worlds most politically stable areas, along with Central Asia.
Next: Why we won't muster an effective response to global warming.
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