Saturday, December 15, 2012

California as the Bellweather of Republican Irrelevance

For my entire life I have heard constant talk about how what's hot in California will be the norm everywhere else in a few years.  Whether that is broadly true across the spectrum of human activities is doubtful, but California certainly is a pop culture leader.   It has also been the leader in politics.

The anti-tax revolution started in California with Propsition 13 in 1978, then was picked up by Conservatives across the country.  California had Republican Governors from the early 1980's until the late 1990's and Republicans dominated the legislature.  Nationally domination of Congress began the the mid-1990's.  

Both in California and nationally the Republican movement was marked by an absolute certainty they were right about all things, a disdain for ideas not their orthodoxy, and an unwillingness to compromise.

In California the movement began to collapse when they backed draconian immigration laws in the Mid-1990's and was accelerated by their inflexible ideological approach that gridlocked the legislature for years.  The obtructionist tactics of the Republicans fired up their base but over time aliented non-ideological voters.  Republican influence has gradually shrunk to the point that every state wide office is held by a Democrat and the Democrats have super majorities in both legislative houses. 

Nationally the Republican decline appears to have begun with the collapse of the economy in 2008 after years of dominating government.  They had a short revival in 2010, but their obstructionist tactics over the following 2 years have pushed more and more voters away from them, even as it fired up the true believers.

I imagine they are taking comfort from the fact they still hold the majority in the House, but I saw a statistic the other day that lumping together all the votes in all house races Democrats actually got half a million more votes than Republicans.  The only reason Republican's have a majority is because they gerrymandered so many districts to create protected havens for themselves.

I think the masterminds of the Republican party, the Rupert Murdoch, Karl Rove and the like, have  trapped the party in a spiral of obstructionist behavior that will continue to alienate voters and push them toward California style irrelevance.

The country would be better off if we had a rational and pragmatic Republican party, but I don't see anyone wresting control of the party from the manipulators at the top any time soon.


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