Thursday, April 1, 2010

The perils of certainty

A basic rule all trial lawyers learn early is that you need to coach your witnesses to say things like they are absolutely certain they are right. People are more likely to believe statements that sound like the person is sure of themselves. A person who is dead wrong, but states things with certainty will be believed over a person who is absolutely right but is by nature inclined to qualify everything they say.
In life probably the opposite is true. People who are always dead certain they are right are often wrong because they don't critically examine their thoughts before expressing them. And people who qualify their statements are more often right because they do critically exam their thoughts before expressing them.
Like the courtroom, politics rewards certainty despite its probable inverse relationship to being right. The politician who speaks their thoughts with certainty is perceived by people with similar thoughts as "genuine" - not to mention right, even in the face of objective evidence they are wrong.
Our government will be better if more voters learn what trial lawyers already know. Being certain isn't the same as being correct.

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